New grain marketing year: What history says about pricing opportunities

Grain, oilseed and pulse prices have been supported since the start of 2026 due to the war in the Middle East and renewed concerns about Black Sea shipping tied to Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. While last year’s global crop was large, demand was firmer than anticipated. For Canadian producers, stronger-than-expected prices helped support 2025-26 margins, but elevated input costs, trade uncertainty and market access risks continue to shape profitability expectations for the year ahead.

In this outlook, we examine how historical pricing patterns can help producers make grain marketing decisions amid market uncertainty.

Global demand has been strong

Commodity prices for the 2025-26 crop year have strengthened since our January projections, led by $45/tonne increases for both canola and soybeans. The stronger price environment has lifted the 2026-27 outlook, with prices now forecast to average above those of the crop year just ended. While abundant supplies were a major theme earlier in the year, escalating conflicts have increased input costs and supported crops tied to fuel markets. Along with stronger U.S. biofuel policy and solid global demand, this has shifted the balance sheet outlook, with global ending stocks for most major crops now expected to decline by the end of 2026-27. As a result, crop prices are projected to move closer to their five-year averages (Table 1), which still reflect elevated values seen in 2021 and 2022.

Table 1: Crop Prices ($/tonne) for new crop year have increases since the start of the year

Canadian crops are ultimately sold in the cash market, where buyers and sellers agree on a price and complete the transaction. How that cash price is set depends on the market structure for each crop. Major crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat have actively traded futures markets that establish benchmark prices at specific U.S. locations and in U.S. dollars. Canola, by contrast, has a Canadian futures contract priced in Canadian dollars. For many other crops, futures markets are either thinly traded or unavailable, making fair market value harder to determine.

Regardless of futures market direction, some seasonal pricing patterns tend to repeat. The question is whether history can provide useful guidance for marketing crops successfully.

Grain prices received are highly seasonal

For most producers, achieving the marketing year (MY) average price is a successful outcome. To assess how realistic that is, we can look at the seasonality of crop prices and when sales are most likely to reach or exceed the average. Seasonality compares each monthly crop price with the average price for the full marketing year. Months where grain is sold below the marketing year average have an index value below 100, while months where grain is sold above the yearly average have an index value above 100.

To choose the right period for building the seasonal index, we compared both short- and long-term timeframes. The results were consistent: the five-year index, which includes the elevated prices of 2021 and 2022, was almost perfectly correlated with the longer 20-year period. While individual years and months can still see large price swings, markets tend to follow reliable seasonal patterns over time, with prices stronger in some months than others within the same marketing year. For this analysis, we use the 20-year index and refer to it as the marketing year index.

Looking across the four commodities — canola, wheat, corn and soybeans — the seasonal pattern supports the common view that prices often weaken around harvest (Figures 1 through 4). The marketing year does not perfectly capture harvest lows, as canola and wheat follow an August-to-July crop year while corn and soybeans follow a September-to-August crop year. Harvest may begin in the first month or two of the marketing year, but that is not always when the largest volume comes to market. Prices tend to ease into the main delivery period when supplies are at their highest. In some years, prices improve just ahead of harvest as buyers, including oilseed crushers, secure enough supply before new-crop deliveries arrive.

Canola

Canola prices often face pressure in September as new-crop supplies move into the system (Figure 1). Canola has a broad demand base, with exports, domestic crush and biofuel-related demand all influencing price movement. Historically, prices have not moved above the marketing year average until March, and the 2025-26 crop year followed a similar pattern. In other words, if producers do not have an immediate need to generate cashflow, and have storage capacity, they may want to hold off sales until the summer when they are most likely to get higher prices.

Figure 1: Saskatchewan canola price following historical seasonality pattern

Sources: Statistics Canada, FCC Economics

Wheat

Wheat follows a similar harvest-related seasonal pattern, though the market drivers differ from canola (Figure 2). Saskatchewan wheat prices are shaped by domestic fundamentals and export demand, with quality, protein levels and global supply conditions all influencing basis and cash values. Wheat has also been less volatile than canola, so sales timing has historically been less important in capturing a price near the marketing year high. The 2025-26 crop year has not followed that pattern exactly, with prices strengthening in the second half of the year as a weaker U.S. crop emerged and concerns grew about Black Sea wheat availability.

Figure 2: Saskatchewan wheat prices strengthened later in the marketing year

Sources: Statistics Canada, FCC Economics

Corn

Ontario corn seasonality is shaped by harvest timing, commercial drying capacity and storage decisions (Figure 3). Prices often weaken as the crop comes off the field and commercial supplies build, particularly in years with strong yields when storage becomes more important. So far, the 2025-26 marketing year has broadly followed the marketing year index, with stronger prices later in the year as Ontario’s large domestic demand base supported the market.

Figure 3: Ontario corn price in 2025/26 following marketing year index

Sources: Statistics Canada, FCC Economics

Soybeans

The soybean marketing year index shows prices are typically lowest at harvest before strengthening steadily into the following year (Figure 4). The timing of stronger bids can vary depending on global oilseed markets and the pace of demand from processors and exporters. The current marketing year has seen some counter-seasonal movement, with prices strengthening into December, likely reflecting export demand before the Great Lakes shipping season closed and competition from crushers. Food-grade soybeans can be marketed and loaded throughout the year, which may help explain why the historical soybean index has been so consistent.

Figure 4: Ontario soybean prices this year not exactly following marketing year index

Sources: Statistics Canada, FCC Economics

Bottom line

For producers, marketing crops at several points during the year can reduce the risk of selling below the marketing year average. Consider a simplified example where an Eastern Canadian producer sells 50% of their soybean crop off the combine in October, excluding any forward pricing decisions. Historically, October soybean prices have averaged about 6% below the marketing year average. To achieve an average price across the whole crop, the remaining soybeans would need to be sold at a stronger point in the marketing year, such as July.

Seasonal trends should not replace current market signals, but they can help producers understand when pricing opportunities have historically been more likely to emerge. Holding grain for a stronger price also comes with costs. Commercial storage fees, on-farm storage costs in addition to interest costs on loans, grain quality, and cash flow requirements all matter when deciding whether to delay sales. With harvest approaching, knowing cost of production remains critical for making marketing decisions on this crop and starting to think about plans for the 2027 crop year, which we will discuss in future blogs this fall.

Justin Shepherd

Senior Economist

Justin is a Senior Economist at FCC. He joined the team in 2021, specializing in monitoring agricultural production and analyzing global supply and demand trends. In addition to his speaking engagements on agriculture and economics, Justin is a regular contributor to the FCC Economics blog.

He grew up on a mixed farm in Saskatchewan and remains active in the family operation. Justin holds a master of applied economics and management from Cornell University and a bachelor of agribusiness from the University of Saskatchewan.