From biofuels to El Nino - your grain market update

Market Focus

Highlights

  • The United States Agriculture Department believes 2017 corn and soybean production will come in below the record levels reached in 2016
  • Predictions are Brazil's soybean crop is likely to reach a record 105 million tonnes, helping to boost soybean exports
  • The possibility of an El Nino weather event in 2017 could impact markets

USDA outlook

U.S. corn, soy production seen down in 2017. The United States Agriculture Department believes 2017 corn and soybean production will come in below the record levels reached in 2016, but supplies of both commodities will remain abundant. The corn crop was seen falling seven per cent to 14.1 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 170.7 bushel per acre, USDA said. Ending stocks for the 2017-2018 crop year were pegged at 2.2 billion bushels, five per cent lower than the prior marketing year.

U.S. soybean production will fall to 4.18 billion bushels, from the record 4.3 billion estimated for 2016. Yields are expected to drop to 48 bushels per acre from 52.1 bushels per acre last year, offsetting what is expected to be a big increase in spring planted acreage (88 million acres planted versus 83.4 million in 2016). U.S. bean ending stocks are still projected at a large 420 million bushels.

U.S. soybean production will fall to 4.18 billion bushels, from the record 4.3 billion estimated for 2016.

U.S. wheat production for the 2017-2018 marketing year is seen dropping by 20 per cent, to 1.8 billion bushels, on expectations of both lower planted area (46 million acres, down from 50.2 million) and yields (47.1 bushels per acre, versus 52.6 bushels).

Brazil’s soybean crops

Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecasts record Brazilian soybean crop in 2017, Brazil's soybean crop in early 2017 is likely to reach a record 105 million tonnes against 95.4 million tonnes last year, helping boost Brazilian soybean exports, Oil World forecast earlier this week.

"Under the lead of Brazil, South American soybean exports are now increasing sharply," Oil World said. "Brazilian exports will be up steeply from last year in February... and for February to August 2017 we expect record Brazilian exports of 52.3 million tonnes, 4.5 million tonnes more than last year."

Emergency declared on Brazil's soybean highway

A traffic jam on a five kilometer stretch of highway BR-163, known as the "soybean highway" in northern Brazil impacted as many as 5,000 trucks late last week and is delaying shipment of soybeans from northern ports. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says the situation is so bad that a state of emergency has been declared along the highway where five communities are now "isolated from the outside world."

Recent heavy rains have made unimproved sections of the highway nearly impassable. "The normal flow of trucks carrying soybeans north along BR-163 is approximately 800 per day, but since Feb. 14, the flow has been reduced to 100 or fewer per day," says Cordonnier. "There are reports of 4,000 to 5,000 trucks being stuck in a 50-mile long traffic jam due to the nearly impassable conditions."

50 per cent chance of El Nino in 2017

The chance of an El Nino developing in 2017 has increased in the last two weeks, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said, indicating a 50 per cent chance the weather event resurfaces over the next six months. The BOM says the eastern Pacific Ocean has warmed over the last fortnight (two weeks), driving many of its climate models towards the El Nino threshold over the next six months. Such weather events are sometimes associated with warm, dry weather along the Asia Pacific region and wet weather along the Pacific coasts of North and South America.

Mike Jubinville of Pro Farmer Canada offers information on commodity markets and marketing strategies. Call 
204-654-4290 or visit www.pfcanada.com to find out more about his services.

Related

What's happening in the durum markets

What's happening in the durum markets

What's happening in the durum markets

What's happening in the durum markets

A relatively high Canadian price for several years has arguably changed how importers buy, quality they buy and who they buy from. .

2017 Canadian crop acreage prospects

2017 Canadian crop acreage prospects

2017 Canadian crop acreage prospects

2017 Canadian crop acreage prospects

Canadian farmers expect to plant more canola, soybeans, spring wheat and oats in 2017, but fewer acres of durum wheat and lentils.

Pulse market watch

Pulse market watch

Pulse market watch

Pulse market watch

A look at issues in India and their impact on the pulse market

Focus on oilseeds

Focus on oilseeds

Focus on oilseeds

Focus on oilseeds

Oilseed markets waned in March and are likely to remain quiet ahead of the March 31 release of the USDA prospect plants and grains stock report.

Add a Comment
Add a Comment Close
characters remaining
There are no comments.