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Note from the editor

Allison Finnamore

Your comments, questions and story ideas are always welcome. You can contact me at allison@finnamore.ca.


1. Harvest rolls on

There were no harvest weather worries in Saskatchewan this week as the province basked in a September heat wave with temperatures more than 10 degrees above normal.  

Saskatchewan Agriculture says 32 per cent of the provincial crop was combined as of Tuesday, Sep. 6. That's up from 21 per cent one week ago and  on track of the five-year average.  Another 34 per cent is swathed or ready to straight-cut.

Harvest progress varies across the province. Here are the numbers by region:

Southwest: 46 per cent combined
Southeast: 43 per cent combined
West central: 29 per cent combined
East central: 27 per cent combined
Northwest: 12 per cent combined"
Northeast: 19 per cent combined

The hot weather prompted the Canola Council of Canada to issue an advisory about storing the oilseed. The basic recommendation is to put canola into aeration bins immediately after harvest and turn the fans on until the canola has cooled to 15 C. If aeration bin space is not available, keep moving the canola from bin to bin until it cools. Another option is early delivery to the elevator or crushing facility.  

"The first four to six weeks after putting the canola in the bin is the most critical time," says Kristen Phillips, a Canola Council of Canada agronomy specialist. "Don't forget about your stored canola while tending to your other harvest duties. It could be a very costly oversight."

Showers heading into the Labour Day weekend proved to be very beneficial. The Perdue area, about 60 kilometres west of Saskatoon, picked up eight millimetres of rain.

"Some of the canola was down around five per cent moisture, so it was a real benefit," says certified crop advisor Gaylord Dennis. "The rain brought it up closer to nine and ten per cent, so that will add some weight to the canola sample."

He adds more canola has been combined than wheat.

"Lots of canola went in early, so most of the cereals were seeded in the last half of May," Dennis says. Some cereals need a little more time to mature. Most of the pulse crops have been harvested, with average yields for lentils and slightly above average for peas.

Chad Doerksen, who farms about 25 kilometres north of Saskatoon, is pleased with the 2011 crop so far. 

"My winter wheat went over 100 bushels an acre. Some of my Invigor canola should go over 60 bushels an acre. I haven't harvested it yet, but it looks really good," Doerksen says.

The 30 C temperatures are especially welcome in regions close to the United States border, which saw crops planted much later than usual. Grant McLean with Saskatchewan Agriculture says the heat is speeding up crop development.

"As you get closer to Assiniboia and certainly down to the U.S. border, there has been less combining done. Farmers were really late getting their seeding done because of the wet conditions this spring." 

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2. VIDEO: The Family Business – Part One

Best-selling author and executive coach David Irvine discusses the challenges of running a family business and how to overcome them. In part one Irvine focuses on the importance of governance, setting goals, holistic leadership and caring for the interests of the family.

Watch the David Irvine video - "The Family Business - Part Two" 

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3. Sunny skies on Ontario farmers' wish list

Ontario corn producers are hoping for sunny fall skies to help their crops mature quickly and beat ear rot, which has already taken hold in several counties.

In her weekly Bug Blog, provincial entomologist Tracey Baute says fields in southwestern Ontario's corn belt are already seeing significant ear damage from western bean cutworm. WBC damage is occurring in a huge swath that extends from Bothwell to Strathroy to Tillsonburg.

Even those fields planted with Bt corn are under pressure, Baute says. Bt technology effectively controls 70 to 80 per cent of the population, but the big infestations this year means a lot of damage is still possible.

"We encourage all corn producers to be scouting for ear damage over the next month," Baute says. "Scouting will identify additional areas that had decent WBC pressure and are at risk of higher overwintering populations [and] infestations again next year."

Baute says scouting will also help in deciding whether to harvest the crop earlier, or to segregate grain from those fields to reduce risk of ear rot and vomitoxins.

Besides covering a great deal of the corn belt, WBC is also producing a wide range of larval sizes. Entomologists say that's because of the extended egg-laying period that took place across much of the province. But fields that are maturing quickly may be less at risk, as the larvae will be dropping down to the ground to overwinter as the ears dry down in these fields.

That, however, creates problems for next year. But at least it buys producers some time to figure out a management strategy. 

"Hopefully we experience a warm and reasonably dry fall to help mature the crop quickly and avoid ideal weather conditions that promote further ear rot development," Baute says.

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4. Program aimed at reducing feedlot costs

Creators of a new feedlot management system expect the technology will increase profits for Canadian cattle producers.

Quantum Genetics Canada Inc. says their management system helps producers send cattle to market at the optimum time. The tool uses DNA testing and genotyping to help producers and feedlot operators distinguish between genetic variations in beef cattle that are related to growth and fat profiles. The profiles tell feedlot operators the best feeding schedules for the animals. They also tell feedlot operators when the animal has reached the targeted body fat profile. This prevents keeping the animal on the feedlot unnecessarily and operators to process more cattle more quickly and more profitably, Quantum Genetics explains in a news release.

The system also helps feedlot operators capture premiums for their product for attributes like marbling and tenderness.

The company received $750,000 from the federal government's Agri-Opportunities Program to further commercialize their product, while at the same time, create 30 jobs in Saskatchewan.

The Agri-Opportunities Program focuses on commercializing innovative new agri-products, processes or services currently not produced or available in Canada and that are ready to be introduced into the marketplace.

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5. Cherries withstand rainstorms

British Columbia's cherry crop appears to be of excellent quality this year, despite the fact that growers overcame several obstacles to reach this point.

A late start to harvest meant seasonal workers were no longer around when fruit was ready to pick. There were also a few record rainstorms in July, causing some damage to fruit.

As well, the market faced price volatility due to the weather-related uncertainties -- a late spring and cool start to summer affected both the B.C. and Washington State cherry crops. That, however, also means fresh cherries from the Okanagan will still be available, instead of the season ending in August. It also means U.S. growers had little to take to market for their usual July 4 long weekend start to the season.

The result was a change in selling patterns this year, affecting Canadian marketing. Don Westcott, director of grower services for the Okanagan Tree Fruit Co-operative notes that prices began strong, but then dropped lower than anticipated.

The cherry season also saw cool temperatures in July, but that's not all bad, says Westcott. It meant trees weren't stressed by the normal 30 C, resulting in good-sized, firm, high quality fruit.

As for precipitation, Westcott explains that heavy rain can leave water standing in the stem bowl of a cherry and as it's absorbed through the skin, can cause the fruit to split if it is nearing maturity.

Growers who hired helicopters to come in and fly over the orchard, blowing that rain off fruit following a storm, were rewarded with little damage as a result of heavy rainstorms this season, he says. But those who did not have sustained significant losses with some cherry varieties.

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6. Alberta extends funding deadline

Alberta Agriculture has extended the application deadline for the integrated crop management program to Nov. 21.

Additional funds remain available on a first-come, first-served basis for producers who have already completed an environmental farm plan and who have a qualifying project, says Diana Bingham, work plan co-ordinator for the program.

Successful applicants must develop a work plan identifying actions aimed at addressing their highest environmental risks and that will reduce or minimize their environmental impact.

In response to producer feedback, the total maximum funding available has been adjusted to $10,000 per applicant in order to spread the funding benefits among more potential participants.

Bingham says variable rate technology is a popular category. This does not include GPS but will allow for improvement to a current GPS system. Another popular choice is fuel tank storage to help reduce the risk of product spills that can impact the environment.

Additional options include sprayer upgrades with such items as low-drift nozzles, spray curtains, spray shrouds and chemical handling systems. Projects that target improved seeding systems such as a move to direct seeding also qualify as well as the establishment of permanent shelterbelts.

Grant funding is provided on a fifty-fifty cost share basis. Applicants will also receive the maximum funding at one time during the term of the program for each category.

Producers are reminded that retroactive funding is also available for eligible costs incurred to complete an approved project as far back as Sept. 1, 2009, the original start date of the program. This is due to delays experienced in the program launch.

Applicants are cautioned that projects started prior to approval risk the possibility of non-receipt of funding if the application is not accepted.

For more information, including a complete funding list, terms, work plan and application form, go to www.growingforward.alberta.ca and look under "enhanced environment."

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7. Record canola crop predicted for 2011

The yellow canola fields of Western Canada are expected to become gold for farmers this year in the form of a record crop.

Statistics Canada predicts canola production will hit 13 million tonnes in 2011, an all-time high and nearly 11 per cent more than in 2010.

Prairie farmers will harvest 17.8 million acres of canola this year, a record area. Average yields are pegged at a strong 32.3 bushels per acre.

Statistics Canada made the forecast in its recent 2011 preliminary crop outlook.

Saskatchewan and Alberta are predicted to see record canola production of 6.5 million tonnes and 4.8 million tonnes respectively. Only in Manitoba, where excessive spring moisture left roughly three million acres of annual cropland unseeded, will production fall by 21.7 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes, Statistics Canada says.

Some market analysts feel the StatsCan forecast is too low and canola production will be higher when the crop is in the bin.

If predictions hold true, this year's canola crop could be worth between $7 billion and $8 billion in farm cash receipts, based on current futures prices. Analysts caution, though, that the actual return depends on the basis, which is the difference between the futures market price and the local cash (or street) price.

The forecast for a record canola crop is a bit surprising, considering a cool, wet spring produced extensive flooding, especially in the eastern Prairies. The wet weather actually worked in canola's favour because farmers turned to it as a last resort.

Derwyn Hammond, crop production resource manager with the Canola Council of Canada, said less traditional areas in southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta saw major increases in canola acreage.

Hammond said warm, dry weather in July and August reduced disease pressure from blackleg and sclerotinia, which can do considerable damage to canola crops.

But record volumes are not a sure thing yet. Hammond said Alberta, where some of the best yields are anticipated, needs several weeks of frost-free weather before the crop can be swathed.

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8. FCC Economic Update: Improving market access diversifies risk

Having the largest economy in the world as your next door neighbour definitely has its advantages.

Rapid economic growth in the United States in the 1990s led to similarly rapid expansion here in Canada. However, recent economic statistics coming from the U.S. are a real motivator to look at improving market access abroad.

The 2008-09 worldwide recession was worse than initially believed, and economic recovery is proceeding at a very slow pace. Given that 50 per cent of Canadian agri-food exports are shipped to the U.S. ($20 billion in 2010), reducing dependence on the U.S. as an export destination should help diversify risk for Canadian agri-food businesses. 

A step in this direction was taken on Aug. 15 when the Free Trade Agreement between Columbia and Canada came into effect.

You may ask, "Is Colombia big enough to make a difference?"

In terms of scope, Colombia is the fourth largest economy in South America and home to 46 million people. In contrast to most of the more developed world, Colombia's Gross Domestic Product is growing. The GDP of Colombia grew at an annual rate of 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2011. An August issue of the magazine The Economist reported growth predictions of five per cent for 2011 and 2012. What is more impressive is that Columbia's past growth was achieved while maintaining an inflation rate that was significantly lower than other rapidly growing economies in South America, like Brazil and Argentina.  

Currently, Canada's main exports to Colombia are wheat, durum, chickpeas and beans. Canada imports coffee, bananas, and horticultural crops from Colombia. In 2010, $640 million worth of agri-food products were exchanged between Canada and Colombia. The intent of an FTA is to increase this number.

The FTA outlines which tariffs will be reduced and the speed at which these reductions will take place. A tariff is a tax placed on goods when they are transported over international borders. Prior to the FTA, the average tariff applied on agricultural products entering Colombia was 17 per cent. At the end of the implementation period, Canadian exports of beef, pork and beans should enter Colombia tariff-free. Tariffs on wheat -- Canada's largest export to Colombia -- were removed once the agreement took effect. Removing border taxes should make Canadian products in the Colombian market more competitive, resulting in increased demand from Colombian buyers.

The FTA also gives Colombia better access to Canadian markets. This should benefit the Colombian economy by creating a larger export market here in Canada without hurting Canadian producers. In agricultural markets, competition between the two countries will be limited because of their different climates.

While the United States is Canada's largest trading partner, it is also one of our most important competitors in international markets. The U.S. has also negotiated a free trade deal with Colombia, but U.S. politicians have yet to officially ratify the agreement. Until this agreement is finalized, Canada has a distinct advantage over the U.S.

In 2010, top U.S. agricultural exports to Colombia were wheat, corn and cotton. The U.S. also traded $2 million worth of beef with Colombia. Reducing tariffs on beef exports under the FTA will help Canadian businesses gain market share in the Colombian beef market.  

The Canadian government is currently negotiating trade agreements with the European Union, Ukraine and other countries to complement 10 agreements that are already in place. Exporting to new destinations is difficult because it often requires country-specific marketing and financing strategies, as well as expanding communication networks to connect foreign buyers and sellers. However, over time, new trade deals should contribute to diversified trade flows.

The economies of developing countries are expected to grow at a much faster rate than the economies of the Western world in the foreseeable future. Diversifying trade opportunities and gaining access to emerging economies are important tools, given the cloudy economic outlook for the United States and Europe.

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9. Market Focus - Canadian grain stocks tighten but...

On Wednesday, Sept. 7, Statistics Canada released its estimates of Canadian grain stocks to end the old crop 2010-11 marketing year, as of July 31, 2011.

To no one's surprise, total stocks to that time of wheat, barley, oats and canola declined compared with the same date in 2010. However, pre-report trade expectations called for steeper stocks cuts.

The following is the summary of the major crops included in the Statistics Canada grain and oilseed stocks in all positions report as of July 31, released Sept. 7. Figures are in million metric tonnes. 

          Total Stocks      Total Stocks       Total Stocks
          July 31, 2011     July 31, 2011      July 31, 2010
             Actual           Estimate           Actual
All wheat    7.189          5.500 - 6.800        7.829 
 Durum       1.583          1.000 - 1.600        2.708        
Canola       1.828          0.700 - 1.300        2.263
Barley       1.441          1.000 - 1.500        2.583
Flaxseed     0.194          0.130 - 0.250        0.289
Oats         0.769          0.400 - 1.000        1.170

The biggest surprise in this report falls to canola, and unfortunately it was a bit of a bearish surprise.

Total stocks of canola decreased 19.2 per cent to 1.8 million tonnes. This was due primarily to on-farm stocks, which declined by 33.9 per cent to 820,000 tonnes. Despite the decline, total canola stocks remain at the five-year average (2006-2010) of 1.8 million tonnes. This, I'm afraid, is not bullish news as no one in the trade expected a number this high, with pre-report estimates averaged about 1.0 million tonnes.

What's suggested here, in my opinion, is that StatCan has underestimated 2010 production. The 12.7 million tonne production estimate for 2010 was obviously much higher, something StatCan will adjust higher in some upcoming report.

But at the time of writing, one hour after the report release, it seems the canola market will look beyond the higher than expected StatCan year-end canola stocks number. It was much bigger than expected, but canola futures continued to trade higher immediately after the report's release. That signifies how much canola price direction is determined from beyond Canadian borders.

Overnight trade ahead of the report release was $3 to $4 a tonne higher as a rebound in macro-markets, and in turn a bounce in world oilseed markets (Chicago Board of Trade soy, Malaysian Palm oil and European Union rapeseed), are more important issues than canola internals. After the StatCan report release, canola futures were still $2 to $4 a tonne higher.

Total stocks of wheat decreased 8.2 per cent to 7.2 million tonnes, mostly the result of an 18.8 per cent decline in on-farm stocks. Commercial stocks were little changed. However, the number did come in higher than trade expectations (my own included), though still should have minimal market impact. A lot of this wheat is also of lower quality given the production problems of 2010.

Much of the trimming that did occur in the wheat category occurred in durum wheat, where total stocks fell 41.5 per cent during the year to 1.6 million tonnes -- right on the PFCanada estimate.

StatCan said total stocks of barley declined 44.2 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes. Barley production fell in 2010, the result of a decline in harvested area. Declines of on-farm stocks occurred in all four western provinces, but were most pronounced in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Barley stocks are tight from a historical perspective, but the number came in towards the upper end of trade expectations.

Overall stocks of oats fell 34.3 per cent to 769,000 tonnes, near the midpoint of trade expectations, but perhaps not quite as tight as PFCanada expected. This follows a sharp decline in production of oats in 2010. On-farm stocks of oats were down 37.2 per cent, while commercial stocks fell 24.2 per cent.

Mike Jubinville of Pro Farmer Canada offers information on commodity markets and marketing strategies. Call 204-654-4290 or visit www.pfcanada.com to find out more about his services.

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The editor and journalists who contribute to FCC Express attempt to provide accurate and useful information and analysis. However, the editor and FCC cannot and do not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in this report and the editor and FCC assume no responsibility for any actions or decisions taken by any reader of this report based on the information provided in this report.

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Copyright 2011, Farm Credit Canada