Tuesday, Jan. 12 was a hard reality check day for the trend-setting United States grain and oilseed markets.
For many weeks, supply side fundamentals suggested no shortages on any of the major ag commodities and in some cases, such as wheat, time and time again suggested burdensome supply building.
And on this day, that reality hit markets hard and displaced that positive current of underlying (and somewhat artificial) support provided by the speculative investing community in ag commodities.
Talk around the ag trade world this week has been dominated by the United States Department of Agriculture's Tuesday release of production, supply and demand and stocks data release. The report triggered a brutal round of selling all around through the grains and oilseeds sector.
Leadership to the downside Tuesday came from the U.S. corn market, which plummeted down its 30 cents a bushel daily trading limit. Meanwhile, soybeans were also down 30 cents a bushel and wheat 30 plus cents lower.
The locked limit down price action across the board in corn futures came in reaction to USDA's much higher than expected U.S. corn production estimate.
Traders expected the USDA to trim its production estimate due to prolonged harvest delays that put more corn at risk of yield losses. But instead, the USDA raised its output projection -- a lot -- by 230 million bushels to a new all time record of 13.151 billion bushels.
The USDA did not lower harvested area, rather increased it by a token amount of 0.3 million acres. Yields were revised an astonishing 2.3 bushels per acre higher to 165.2 bushels per acre.
That's amazing, considering a record crop was produced under dire conditions this year, from a wet spring that delayed planting to a wet fall that left some corn still in the field. This result reinforces the advances of modern varietal genetics and its increasing resiliency to growing condition adversity.
However, the large crop only translated into a modest rise to the 2009-2010 ending stocks projection.
The situation on corn usage will be called into some question. In this report, the USDA included about a 150 million bushel increase in U.S. feed consumption.
Some logic seems to be missing on how that can be, considering that Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks were 270 million bushels above expectations. Also, the USDA left 2009-10 U.S. corn exports unchanged at 2.05 billion bushels, despite the current export pace running well behind the weekly average needed to meet that target.
So then, the boost in 2009-10 U.S. corn stocks to 1.76 billion bushels (up 89 million bushels from the December report) is not in itself statistically significant. But when considered with the perhaps overstated usage estimates and the prospect of larger U.S. corn acreage for 2010, the odds suggest a lower -- rather than higher -- price trend.
The overall setup warns of further downside price potential immediately. Tuesday's numbers provide fundamental cover for such a price decline to evolve.
Soybeans
The USDA also raised the size of the U.S. soybean crop in this report. That's not really out of line with trade expectations, but confirms that in 2009, U.S. producers took in the largest bean crop in American history.
Demand was raised, as expected, to satisfy bulging crush and exports. Carryout was reduced to 245 million bushels (down 10 million), which is statistically indifferent.
Nonetheless, Chicago soybean futures careened lower, dropping to two month lows on bearish USDA output forecasts. Speculative funds were heavy sellers across the soy complex.
Record U.S. production, larger South American crop forecasts and the threat of reduced export demand from China were bearish features sending prices spiralling lower.
Spill over weakness from a plunge in corn futures down their daily trading limits added to the defensive theme, discouraging buyers from stepping in front of the lower trend.
Demand in the global oilseed complex remains strong, and thus does not leave much room for crop threats in 2010. But no crop is being threatened at this time.
The broader, overall price trend is evolving towards sideways for 2010 until new fundamentals arise. This latest bearish data and negative charts suggest that recent highs of $10.70 a bushel in nearby soybean futures is high enough. But for now, the immediate path suggests a move towards low $9 a bushel territory.
Wheat
Not to be outdone, U.S. wheat markets were also hammered lower in the wake of limit-down losses in corn futures and wheat's own bearish USDA crop data.
USDA data had a bearish tone for wheat because the agency increased its estimates for American and world carryout, and lowered its forecast for U.S. wheat exports. Export demand has sagged because there is strong foreign competition for business and U.S. wheat prices are seen as too high.
U.S. winter wheat seedings were admittedly lower than expected, but large world supplies provide a big cushion against the decline. That lessened the bullish impact of the seedings estimate.
In the winter wheat seedings report, traders widely expect a sizable drop in American winter wheat acres. But the decline in U.S. winter acres (spring red wheat and hard red wheat) was more than expected -- down to 37.1 million acres, from the average of trade expectations at 40.9 million and last year's 43.3 million.
Despite fewer acres though, the American wheat supply remains nothing short of excessive. U.S. 2009-10 wheat ending stocks were increased by 76 million to 976 million bushels -- that's a mighty burdensome stocks-to-use ratio of 49 per cent!
On the world front, global wheat stocks were boosted to 195.6 million tonnes, up 4.7 million tonnes from last month's report. That's up a whopping 32 million tonnes from 2008-09 and continues a path for wheat statistically becoming more burdensome with each USDA report. Global stocks are nearing the glut years of 10 years ago when they were 200-205 million tonnes.
Mike Jubinville of Pro Farmer Canada offers information on commodity markets and marketing strategies. Call 204-654-4290 or visit www.pfcanada.com to find out more about his services.