A new market outlook report from Agriculture Canada predicts barley production will be reduced over the next three years.
"Over the medium term, the area seeded and harvested for barley in Canada is expected to decline slowly and bottom out sometime around 2013," says the report from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Market Analysis group.
One of the main reasons given for the reduced acreage is the decline of both the cattle and hog numbers on Canadian farms.
"In its September 1 release, CANFAX estimated cattle on feed declined by 8.4 per cent from 2008-09 to 0.63 million head. Compared to two years ago cattle on feed were down almost 21 per cent," says the report.
The low prices for cattle combined with trade issues such as U.S. country of origin meat labelling is forcing farmers to reduce the size of their herds. Similar factors are facing the hog industry which is also driving down demand for barley from pork producers.
"Canadian hog numbers may fall to the lowest level in a decade due to ongoing financial losses approaching $55 per pig. At 11.5 million head, Canada's hog herd will end 2009-10 22 per cent smaller than at its peak in 2005 and the smallest since 1998," notes the report.
Agriculture Canada says there are two other factors weighing on domestic demand for barley in the short term. The late harvest has impacted crop quality and there's expected to be 3.2 million tonnes of feed wheat available which will compete with barley in feed rations. Also, more dried distillers grain from the expanding ethanol industry will compete with barley in the cattle feeding sector.
The export prospects don't look much better as the recent strength of the Canadian dollar makes barley more expensive for foreign customers.
"As well, near-record production of corn in the U.S., a good EU-27 barley crop and rapidly expanding grain production in the Black Sea region are constraining feed barley exports."
While the outlook for feed barley is not great, Agriculture Canada sees steady production and demand for malting barley.
"Demand for malting barley is projected to rise slightly with domestic processing continuing stable and exports rising at a slow and steady pace to about three million metric tonnes by 2018."
Agriculture Canada is expecting barley production this year to reach 9.2 million metric tonnes. While there’s some concern about the quality of this year's crop due to the cool growing season and late harvest, the "volume selected for malt is expected to be at near normal levels."
The price outlook in the report doesn't hold much upside potential as pressure will come from the strong Canadian dollar, record U.S. corn supplies, large EU production and stable world supplies.
"The cash price of feed barley, in-store Lethbridge, is forecast to fall to $155 a tonne from $179 a tonne in 2008-09," says the report.



